[
  {
    "i": 0,
    "speaker": "Speaker 1",
    "text": "Mark, what do you make of Micron?"
  },
  {
    "i": 1,
    "speaker": "Speaker 1",
    "text": "Obviously, incredible earnings."
  },
  {
    "i": 2,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And as Anthony just outlined there, the margins there are very impressive."
  },
  {
    "i": 3,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I think this kind of uh you know, uh reaffirms the story that the the AI capex bubble is still got plenty more to inflate."
  },
  {
    "i": 4,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "Uh and you know, the recent vol- uh volatility we've seen is just that."
  },
  {
    "i": 5,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "It's we're in this kind of vola- tile end phase of the bubble inflation."
  },
  {
    "i": 6,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And again, that volatile end phase can last for for many months."
  },
  {
    "i": 7,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "Uh again, the benchmark here that we looked at for prior bubbles is normally about 6 months."
  },
  {
    "i": 8,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And I'm kind of seeing the start of that bit happening"
  },
  {
    "i": 9,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "in May."
  },
  {
    "i": 10,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "So, maybe we kind of go through towards the end of the year uh on the AI capex bubble."
  },
  {
    "i": 11,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "Now, that's all just kind of a rough guidance framework."
  },
  {
    "i": 12,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I think we continue to watch uh those earnings uh future earnings for you kind of when we've got a sign that the the capex bubble is going to burst."
  },
  {
    "i": 13,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "But, until then, as Anthony just outlined, you know, that there there are there are names in Asia and and Micron also in the US that are making real hard money here, like hand over fist."
  },
  {
    "i": 14,
    "speaker": "Speaker 3",
    "text": ">> Mark, is some of that is is some of the investment flows that we're seeing going into some of those those chip makers coming from Bitcoin and gold and silver, or is that much more a dollar story?"
  },
  {
    "i": 15,
    "speaker": "Speaker 3",
    "text": "Because gold and silver are getting whacked again today."
  },
  {
    "i": 16,
    "speaker": "Speaker 3",
    "text": "Bitcoin's at around 61,000."
  },
  {
    "i": 17,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": ">> Uh I I think it is more a dollar story."
  },
  {
    "i": 18,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I think that's a dollar and real yield story."
  },
  {
    "i": 19,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "So, with the collapse in oil prices, we're seeing a a rapid kind of decline in in inflation expectations, inflation swaps, which means we're not seeing the same kind of the the the the decline in yields is a bit smaller."
  },
  {
    "i": 20,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And therefore, we're basically seeing real yields uh stay very elevated compared to the last year or so."
  },
  {
    "i": 21,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "Uh and that combined with the strong dollar is weighing on precious uh metals and on crypto stocks."
  },
  {
    "i": 22,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I do think it's true that before we got dips in those kind of assets, retail got excited to buy into those dips."
  },
  {
    "i": 23,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "But,"
  },
  {
    "i": 24,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "they're just ignoring them."
  },
  {
    "i": 25,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "It's not the fun casino to play anymore."
  },
  {
    "i": 26,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "It is AI meme stocks, um which is perceived to be, you know, really high volatility with a positive skew."
  },
  {
    "i": 27,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And so, yes, there's no attention to buy the dip in those, but I don't think it's about money directly coming out of them to go into AI."
  },
  {
    "i": 28,
    "speaker": "Speaker 1",
    "text": ">> Inflation data later today, how could that change the market narrative?"
  },
  {
    "i": 29,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": ">> I I don't think that's probably, uh you know, going to be a big issue."
  },
  {
    "i": 30,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I think this is one that we're kind of expecting."
  },
  {
    "i": 31,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "I think what's more is kind of the Warsh signaling that we get over the next couple of months,"
  },
  {
    "i": 32,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "knowing that he doesn't want to provide too much signaling."
  },
  {
    "i": 33,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "But people are going to I I've got used to the last kind of 15 years of Fed guidance and of over interpreting everything muttered by Fed officials."
  },
  {
    "i": 34,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And I think that's quite a weird setup, but we're going to have Warsh trying not to guide the market, um but he will be kind of all his words will be parsed."
  },
  {
    "i": 35,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "And I say that in reference to the fact of Jackson Hole next week, and I think that's more relevant than the backward-looking data on on inflation, given that the inflation dynamic is changing very rapidly with the way that oil prices are coming down very quickly."
  },
  {
    "i": 36,
    "speaker": "Speaker 2",
    "text": "Um so, we're seeing a real kind of change in scenario than we were assessing even only a month ago."
  }
]