[
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "On the 18th of May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $649 million in a single session, the largest redemption since January."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Over the past 14 days, cumulative outflows have crossed $2.26 billion, suggesting that all is not well in Bitcoin land."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So today, we'll walk through exactly what broke with the ETFs, dismantle the macro story that's currently neutralizing every bullish catalyst, and lay out the specific price levels you need to be watching over the next 30 days."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "My name is Guy and this is the Coin Bureau."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, Bitcoin is currently sitting roughly 38% below its peak of almost $125,000 from early October last year."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Fear and greed sits at 35, firmly in fear, but nowhere near the singledigit capitulation readings that historically mark generational bottoms."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, what we're seeing here is much harder to read than simple panic."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "BTC is struggling to stay above $80,000 for any meaningful length of time, and the institutional pillars that have been propping it up this year are all looking significantly weakened."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Let's start with the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were supposed to be the structural buyer that absorbed every dip."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Well, over the past 14 days, ending the 23rd of May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.26 billion in net outflows with six consecutive days of redemptions inside that window."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "A single day record of $649 million was set on the 18th of May with Black Rockck's IBIT leading the bleed."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "IBIT has now seen roughly $64.8 billion in cumulative inflows since launch against just $61.75 billion in current AUM which is significant."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The fund is trading $3.7 billion below total capital ever invested in it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So the average IBIT holder is underwater."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And the 13F filings from Q1 actually give us the big names that have reduced their crypto exposure."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Jane Street cut its IBIT holdings 71% slashed Fidelity's FBTC 60% and reduced its strategy stake 78% with roughly $82 million rotating into Ethereum ETFs."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "In the same quarter, Harvard management company cut its IBIT position 43% and fully liquidated its $86.8 million Ethereum stake."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "It turns out many of the institutional buyers who were assumed to be long-term investors were anything but."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "As soon as the macro stress arrived, they left."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Which brings us directly to what many had long feared, sailor selling."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Yep."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "On the 5th of May on Strategy's Q1 earnings call, Michael Sailor and CEO Fonglay signaled that the company is prepared to sell Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, retire convertible debt, and optimize the balance sheet."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Sailor framed it as a quote capital allocation decision."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "In a follow-up interview, he said selling some Bitcoin before year end is quote not unlikely."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, Strategy holds $843,738 BTC at a $75,700 average cost basis, meaning the entire stack is one wick away from being underwater on aggregate."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The Q1 net loss was $12.54 billion, driven primarily by a large unrealized markdown on its Bitcoin holdings."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And the STRC preferred stock program carries significant annual dividend obligations with reports suggesting in the range of $1.71 billion per year that must be serviced regardless of Bitcoin's price."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So put simply, the never sell doctrine that defined this entire cycle has just been retired."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The largest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet has told the market that selling is on the table."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And every week, Bitcoin trades below $76,000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The buffer that justifies the Bitcoin Treasury model to equity investors gets that little bit thinner."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Right folks, a quick interlude because I think you're going to want to know this as well."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, a lot of people still think Coinbase is just a beginner platform, but with Coinbase Advanced, that's actually changed quite a bit."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "You're getting lower fees, proper charting tools, real-time order books, and full control with limit and stop orders."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, it all feels much closer to a professional trading setup, but without the usual complexity."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, whether you're stepping up from basic apps or just want a cleaner, more reliable platform, it is definitely one to have on your radar."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And if you want to try it out, there's currently a limited offer for Coin Bureau viewers."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "You can get $40 in Bitcoin when you trade $40."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, this is available in the US, Canada, Europe, Singapore, and Australia, but it's capped to the first 350 people, so it may not last long."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "You can scan the QR code on screen now, or check the link in the description and pinned comment for full details."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And with that, let's get back to it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And then there's the macro picture sitting above all of this."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.07% on the 22nd of May."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The 10-year is at 4.56%."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "CPI is running at 3.8% with Cleveland Fed models flagging a potential drift towards 4.18%."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Meanwhile, CME Fed Watch is now pricing in 54% odds of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting with just 1.5% odds of any easing."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And on the 22nd of May, Kevin Walsh was sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, you might assume that a Fed chair whose total net worth is estimated between 131 million and $29 million with indirect exposure to crypto through stakes in over 30 digital asset entities held via venture fund structures would be reflexively doubbish on digital assets."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "However, that assumption ignores the fact that Walsh is a balance sheet hawk with a long track record of opposing aggressive quantitative easing."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, as far as bonds go, with 5.07% on the long end, institutions can earn a risk-free yield in a AAA rated instrument, and thus the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin is higher than at any point during the 2024 accumulation phase."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Lower rates will be a huge positive for Bitcoin, but lower rates just aren't on the table for the time being."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "But it's not all doom and gloom because the onchain data is telling us something the price chart cannot."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Long-term holders now control 78.3% of the circulating supply."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And that's a cycle high."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The believers are not selling."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "In other words, and on top of that, exchange reserves have collapsed to roughly 2.21 million BTC, a 7-year low on immediately sellable supply."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Whale wallets holding 1,000 or more BTC have accumulated approximately 270,000 coins in the last 30 days alone."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium has flipped negative, telling you US institutional buyers are absent."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Put volume on the options market is rising and ETF outflows have not yet shown a clean reversal."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, put simply, the market right now is a coiled spring with compression building, waiting for the catalyst to release it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And by the way, if you want our team's read on every catalyst before it hits the market, then you should join the Coinb's Telegram channel."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "That's where we share breaking news, deep dive alpha, and the most important market updates, all pinged directly to your device, so you don't miss a thing."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Join today using the link down in the description or the QR code on screen."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Now, in every previous cycle, this is the point where miners would be the accelerant on the way down."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Hash rate is sitting at 959 exaashes per second."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The weighted average cash production cost for public miners has climbed to roughly $90,000 per bitcoin, which means at today's prices, pure play mining is well below break even."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "In 2018 and in 2022, this is exactly the setup that triggered forced selling cascades."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "But 2026 is different and the reason is sitting in plain sight."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "AI hash rate actually contracted 4% in Q1, the first negative growth in over 5 years because miners intentionally decommissioned their rigs to free up power for AI hosting."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Iron has signed a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft and a separate $3.4 billion deal with Nvidia."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The industry has collectively booked over $70 billion in AI and HPC contracts and the market is taking notice."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Riot is up 31.6% over the last 30 days."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Clean Spark is up 25% and Marathon is up 18.6%."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "All while BTC has barely moved."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The forced seller of every previous Bitcoin bare market has left the building."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, let's talk about the four levels that define the next 3 months."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "First, $74,500."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "That's the line where Strategy's entire 843,738 Bitcoin position goes underwater on aggregate."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "a sustained close below it and the market prices in forced selling whether sailor pulls the trigger or not."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Second $70,000 the 2021 cycle all-time high old resistance turned support."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "A clean break below this level without recovery means the distribution phase is real."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Third $66,000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "This is the broader riskoff trigger where Bitcoin stops trading on its own fundamentals and starts trading as a high beta risk asset in a global deleveraging."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And fourth, $82,000 to $83,000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The 200day moving average and the approximate cost basis of recent institutional ETF entrance."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Reclaim this level and the narrative flips."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Reject it and the range tightens."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Which brings us to the three key scenarios that could play out from here."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Base case, Bitcoin grinds sideways between $75,000 and $85,000 through the summer."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Walsh's first FOMC keeps rates where they are."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The Clarity Act passes, but on a delayed timeline."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "ETF flows oscillate, sometimes clearing Arthur Hayes's $300 million daily inflow threshold."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Mostly not."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Patience is the trade in this setup."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "bare case."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The October 2025 print was the cycle top."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Strategy is forced to sell to cover STRC obligations."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "The Clarity Act stalls past the August recess."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "CPI ticks up."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Wash hikes in December and historical midterm patterns deliver a $60,000 bottom by October 2026."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And the bull case, the Clarity Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15 to9 on the 14th of May, passes the full Senate before recess, unlocking roughly $15 billion in institutional inflows per city's estimate."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "ETF flows clear the $300 million threshold sustainably, and the path to a 125,000 to 150,000 BTC by year end opens up as a genuine possibility."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So while Bitcoin itself remains sound, the surrounding narrative is undergoing a severe stress test, the permanent institutional bid was always a tactical position masquerading as a structural one."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And we saw the same thing with the sailor put, which turned out to be a corporate balance sheet decision rather than a religious vow."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And that lower rates save Bitcoin thesis, that was just a macro tailwind that people mistook for native demand."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "On the flip side though, long-term holders are at a cycle high."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Exchange reserves are at 7-year lows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Miners are no longer for sellers."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Sovereign wealth funds like Mubadala are net buying 16% more IBIT at these levels."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Frankly, the structural fundamentals at a 38% draw down have never been stronger than they are right now."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So keep an eye on those ETF flows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Three to five consecutive days of net inflows above $300 million will be the cleanest signal that institutional capital is returning."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Watch $74,500 on a daily close basis."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Hold it and the correction narrative weakens."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Break it and the path to $70,000 opens up alongside strategies cost basis."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Third, watch the 30-year Treasury yield."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Below 5% eases the macro pressure on every risk asset."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Above 5.3% and the pain gets much worse."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And fourth, watch the Clarity Act calendar with the 10th of August recess as the effective deadline."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Because as we know all too well in crypto, things can turn around very quickly."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "So, is this the last shakeout before we go higher or do we have to resign ourselves to yet another trip to Goblin Town?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Let us know in the comments."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "And if you want to understand exactly how Strategy's balance sheet could turn into the most important domino in crypto, then check out our deep dive right over here."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "Okay, thank you all so much for watching and I'll see you again very soon."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Guy",
    "text": "This is Guy signing off."
  }
]