[
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Yesterday saw the largest single sale of IBIT, Black Rockck's Bitcoin spot ETF by an institution ever, and the Bitcoin price barely budged."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "How does that work?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We're going to dive deeply into that."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Also, we told you yesterday about how Michael Sailor was buying bonds and not Bitcoin."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Well, the Michael Sailor of Ethereum, one Tom Lee, made his largest Ethereum purchase ever."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We're going to talk about all that and more right now on the Daily Wolf."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Let's go."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "What is up everybody?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Welcome to the Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I'm your host, Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "You can find me right there at Scott Melker on X and on YouTube, where I do a very high quality 9:00 a.m. show every single day that you should obviously be tuning into."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now, as I tell you every day, we've got 15 minutes and we're going to try to separate what's noise and signal."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And I'm finding it consistently harder to find signal through the noise because even when I read a headline that I think is meaningful, generally the media seems to have the wrong takes."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "In my experience, they all grab for the same headline and then sort of write the same piece about it without really digging into the numbers."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Interestingly, I also find that when I try to dig into it with AI, it often misses the nuance as well because it's just reading the news and finding it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, it turns out that sometimes you actually have to, I don't know, do some research to understand what's happening with a story."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And the biggest story today is a great example of that."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Here we have it right here."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Whale alert."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "That's how I read that."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Whale alert."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "There's the whale."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Someone dumped 1.29 billion of Black Rockck Bitcoin ETF in a dark pool trade."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "The big sale happened amid a broader continued exodus from US listed spot Bitcoin ETF."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So we've long told a lot of stories about the inflows and outflows and we get these historic runs of inflows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Then of course all of a sudden we go right into a historic run of outflows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Right now I think we're at seven straight days of outflows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But this actual story is interesting."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So as I said there was a single sale 1.92 uh 1.29 billion in IBIT that was executed in a darkpool."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This was yesterday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "My friend Alex Sord over at Galaxy flagged it on X and he called it the biggest of its kind he's ever seen."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And people may wonder what a darkpool sale is."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It means it's privately negotiated."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It's off exchange and you don't know who the counterparty is."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So they do this obviously because they don't want to market sell $1.29 billion of an asset because it would crash the price."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This is by far the largest of its kind."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So the story that you're seeing written is the one above."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Somebody dumped a whole lot."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But when I look at the numbers, it's very interesting because you had this massive sale at 1.29 billion of IBIT."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But if you look at the total IBIT net redemptions yesterday, which means how many of uh how many IBIT, you know, shares were actually redeemed for the underlying asset, it was only 192.44 million."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So normally when you look at these outflow numbers, you're looking at the actual redemption."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So you had a $1.29 billion sale, but total only $192 million in outflows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "That's a gap of $1.1 billion of those shares that were bought by someone who did not redeem them."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So this can give us some information about who that secret counterparty might be because it's clearly somebody that is not doing this mechanically."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "They're not a market maker."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "They're someone who actually decided to buy these from that other person and to hold them."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So to me, that is the bigger story."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And if you wonder why Bitcoin price didn't actually move dramatically, it's because these didn't end up being redeemed."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And even though they were sold to someone, there was a willing party on the other side who wants to own these and likely own them long term."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So giving this some broader context, as I said, this is the seventh straight day of net ETF outflows, the second longest stre."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Right now we're at 1.8 billionish over 7 days with 2.26 26 billion withdrawn over the past two weeks."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, Bitcoin obviously has not moved dramatically as a result of this, but it has, if we're being intellectually honestly honest, generally moved uh pretty dramatically."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, take a look at this right here."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This is a chart, as you can see, of the top assets in the world by market cap."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Gold there, number one by many, many multiples, which was not actually the case."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It was always number one, but not by this many multiples."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Maybe by a 2x."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "uh now it's almost 6x Nvidia, but the the story here is that Bitcoin's down at 13, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And I remember uh being on our shows and we were excited when it was passing silver and testing Apple, you know, getting up into these numbers."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Obviously, those have all continued to rise massively while Bitcoin has dropped."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, you've had two assets going in separate directions."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, obviously, Bitcoiners don't want to see that it's the 13th largest asset, smaller than Tesla, and Meta, Sodia, Ramco, and Broadcom, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But uh this is a story of an uncorrelated asset."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And as I've long said, you know, people want to own an uncorrelated asset in their portfolio, something with idiosyncratic risk, something that has a chance to do something different than the rest of your portfolio."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Unfortunately, sometimes that means your thing goes down when everything else goes up."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But it also means that in the future there will be times when it goes up and other things go down."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "As always, I remain a Bitcoin bull and say you just kind of hold on to this thing and you don't worry about it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But it's nice to see that somebody had the conviction to buy that big of a of a position in IBIT and to hold onto it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So the next story is yet again crypto adjacent because we have to talk about prediction markets now when we when we do this show."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Here's the story right here and it's Donald Trump coming in with a fullthroated endorsement of prediction markets and a comment about crypto."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I'm just going to read it for you because I know that some of you can't read."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It is critically important that the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets is maintained and that they will thrive under my leadership."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We are setting rules of the road that are the gold standard for the states."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We cannot have scum like Chris Christie, Leticia James, Tim Waltz, and JB Pritsker setting the rules."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Other countries are after this new form of financial market and we want to remain at the top."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Likewise and even more importantly where we are currently the crypto bitcoin etc capital of the world."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Other countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity but we won't let that happen."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It is a major industry and we must protect it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Mike Seelig CFD's chair CFDC chairman and respected by all is doing a great job."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Thank you Mike."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "President Donald J. Trump he did not say thank you for attention to this matter but he should have."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "All right."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So first of all Sele is alone at the CFTC."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "He's the only person there right now, which is astounding that they haven't uh appointed other people to join him there."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, he basically has unilateral power right now uh to to to fight this."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But we've been talking long about how prediction markets are in this turf war for what they are and who can regulate them."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, clearly Donald Trump believes that his CFTC should be the regulator, that these are largely derivatives contracts and many people agree."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "the states he mentioned quite a few of them there tend to disagree and I've told you stories about how they're banning prediction markets across them a and the position there is that this is largely gambling and that gambling is the purview of the states they legislate uh and regulate the casinos they regulate the sports betting books and that's what they view prediction markets as now I mean two things first of all I can show you largely what is happening here with these prediction markets and why the states might be concerned you can take your own position on this, but here you go."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This is from April, but I I just brought this up today."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "70% of Poly Market traders lost money as top .004% captured most profit data."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, roughly 70% of Poly Market's 1.7 million trading addresses recorded losses while fewer than 0.04% not even4% captured over 70% of total profits totaling 3.7 billion according to blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, first of all, clearly we've seen claims of insider trading using prediction markets."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We know that that factually is true and it's happening and it's very hard to regulate that here because these are micro contracts."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It can last a certain amount of time about very specific things that people are definitely going to have very specific knowledge over."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, that's a problem they're going to have to figure out regardless of who is the regulator."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But when you take a look under the hood, and I just looked this up before the show, 70 to 90% of all bets, excuse me, uh I don't contracts, they're not bets, it's not gambling, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "They call it bets."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "uh 70 to 90% is sports betting, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So obviously you can see why the states would believe that it's their purview to regulate sports betting and you can see why the DraftKings and FanDuels and other sports books of the world who have fought for regulation and basically have to be registered specifically as casinos and and sports books why they would have a problem with this."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "70 to 90% of this is sports betting."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And the other curious part obviously that goes back to the way we've seen the Trump family and Donald Trump specifically operate in almost every industry including crypto in prediction markets is the fact that his son Donald Trump Jr. sits on the board of both Poly Market and Kouchy who are the two largest players and Trump media itself launched embedded prediction markets on Truth Solo social via Crypto.com in October of 2025."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So he's basically demanding federal protection for an industry his son vis advises and his company operates in."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I'm not saying he's specifically doing that."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This feels like an industry that Trump would protect."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "He obviously defend his CFTC and the right of the federal government to regulate these."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But as usual with his family, this gets very very uh mixed very very fast as to who is doing what, who should be doing what, and obviously who is profiting it from it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now, yesterday I told you a story about one Michael Sailor and his BitVac charging up how he was buying bonds and closing his convertible notes rather than buying Bitcoin this week."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Well, as I've called him, we've got the Tom Lee of Ethereum."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "uh Tom Lee, the Michael Sailor of Ethereum."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Tom Lee, edit that."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Michael Sailor of Ethereum, Tom Lee."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "uh he bit my my makes Ethereum buy yet in 2026."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I've shown you this guy."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I mean, it's just the Scrooge McDuck of Ethereum, just diving into his vault, getting up all the Ethereum."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now, he owns 4.4% of all Ethereum."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "He's long said that his target for how much Ethereum the company would own is 5%."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "He actually said that he would buy less because he was rapidly approaching that target."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And what did he actually do?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Well, he did the smart thing when he saw that it was low price 2,117 roughly around yesterday morning when this was announced."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "uh he made his biggest purchase ever, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And so, listen, I think you can have a plan and you know that plan changes when you get punched in the face."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Well, in this case, he's punching Ethereum in the face because it is low price and he wants more of it."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I think he's going to end up with over 5% to be quite honest because he's so close to it and prices are so low, I don't think he's going to be able to resist buying more."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now as sort of a aside to that story we have the next one which is Ethereum Salana Treasury firm Sharplink and forward join Russell index."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So we have Bitmine also joining expected to join the Russell 1000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So they'll be joining the Nvidia Microsoft Apple of the world."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Sharplink here will be joining Russell 2000 3000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "They are an Ethereum Treasury company as well."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Galaxy Digital another crypto company will join the 1000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Gemini probably joining the 2000 3000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Ford Industries, the largest Salana company with a 585 million in soul, will be joining the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So what does this mean?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It means that these companies will join indexes and people will passively be investing into them whether they like it or not."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I always laughed at the fact that there are people who just absolutely hate Michael Sailor or Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Pick pick your eccentric billionaire, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And then you ask them to take a quick look at their 401k and see what they're invested in."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And course, of course, they're invested broadly in the market, the NASDAQ 100 or the S&P, and they have exposure and own all of these stocks and they own them in size because they are so large."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Well, that's what's going to be happening here with the Ethereum and Salana Treasury companies."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "people are going to be owning them whether they like it or not."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So this is actually very big for passive flows."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It could theoretically be big for the price of these assets because they're smaller caps and will move on the size of these orders because people are going to be forced buyers of these assets which should eventually hopefully acrue to the underlying."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now I have one more story that I just want to very quickly share."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Crypto crypto packs spend 9 million in Texas and score wins in both parties."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Industry backpack supported Democrat and Republican candidates alike underscoring digital assets growing role as a cross party electoral force."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So listen, I don't want to get into the specifics of the actual elections."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But I find it very very interesting right now that we're even seeing on the Democrat side large tranches coming from the pro crypto pack to support one Democrat versus another."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It is still very profitable and a very good idea to be pro- crypto because the lobbies are so massive, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "And this has already affected multiple races with only $9 million in Texas."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Imagine when they start deploying hundreds of millions of dollars into the national elections that we're going to see in the midterms that are coming up in November."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, we long talked about the fact that being anti-crypto didn't seem to make much sense, right?"
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "This was even before we saw the last election swung obviously by the crypto packs and largely by crypto money going to Donald Trump."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Now we are seeing the anti-crypto army rear its head a bit."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "But I don't think there's really anti-crypto voters out there who are going to jump on board with that and it seems like a very unprofitable thing to be in the face of the crypto pack that's going to spend to beat you."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "So, I think we're going to see more pro- crypto sentiment backed by money coming into the midterm elections."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "That is generally all we've got for you today."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "I love seeing a massive whale in the market buying up a $1.29 billion sale of IBIT."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "It means there's still some real buying interest."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "That's all I got for you today."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "We will be back tomorrow."
  },
  {
    "speaker": "Scott Melker",
    "text": "Peace."
  }
]